Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Photo: David Silpa/UPI
Negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine have caused a wave of anxiety in Europe, as Kyiv’s allies were not involved in the process of discussing the future security order.
According to Tatiana Stanova, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Kremlin sees the current situation as favourable, as the West is unable to change Russia’s territorial gains.
“For Putin, the real solution is Ukraine, which is not Russia’s enemy. It must be disarmed, with a new constitution and guarantees not to join NATO ,” Stanova said.
Europe aside, the US shifts its focus
The position of the United States exacerbates the concern. According to insiders, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth told European partners that Ukraine’s return to the 2014 borders was unrealistic and that its accession to NATO was not a priority.
Moreover, the Trump administration is signalling that Europe should take on more of Kyiv’s military support as Washington focuses on other strategic challenges.
Kremlin does not want to negotiate with Trump’s representative
Stanova notes that although talks between Moscow and Washington have been ongoing for several weeks, the Kremlin is unwilling to engage in dialogue with Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special representative for Ukraine.
“There is reason to believe that even Trump himself doubts the advisability of Kellogg‘ s participation in the process,” the analyst writes.
Earlier, Kellogg said that both Ukraine and Russia should make concessions, which irritated Moscow. The Kremlin rejects the idea of negotiating from a position of strength and sanctions pressure.
Putin’s strategy: wait and reap the benefits
Despite initial disagreements, the Kremlin has chosen a patient tactic to win Trump over.
“Putin has been working to establish contact with Trump, demonstrating flexibility and a willingness to compromise,” Stanova said.
According to her, the Kremlin is convinced:
- The West will not be able to change the situation on the battlefield.
- Without US support, Kyiv will weaken.
- Time is working for Russia.
At the same time, Putin is ready for the talks to fail. If a compromise is not reached, Moscow will continue to implement its long-term strategy towards Ukraine.
The Kremlin is preparing for peace talks, but its main goal is not to end the war, but to establish control over Ukraine. Whether Washington will agree to this is a question that will determine the future of European security.
