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Last week, there were no dramatic changes in the alignment of political forces in Israel, but public opinion polls show a gradual weakening of the positions of Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid. This is reported by the Maariv website, citing a study by Lazar Mehkarim, conducted under the direction of Dr Menahem Lazar with the participation of Panel4All.
Distribution of mandates: who wins and who loses?
If elections were held today, the seats in the Knesset would be distributed as follows:
– Likud – 23 seats (+1 compared to the previous poll).
– Benny Gantz’s “State Camp” – 16 mandates (-1).
– NDI – 16 mandates (unchanged).
– Democrats (Yair Golan) – 14 seats (+2).
– Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid – 12 seats (-1).
– SAS – 9 mandates (-1).
– Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power – 9 mandates (unchanged).
– Torah Jewry – 7 mandates (unchanged).
– Hadash Ta’al – 5 mandates (-1).
– The RPA – 5 mandates (+1).
– “Religious Zionism” – 5 mandates (unchanged).
The parties of BALAD and Gideon Saar do not pass the electoral threshold.
What does Naftali Bennett’s hypothetical party change?
If Naftali Bennett’s new party joins the race, the picture looks different:
– Bennett’s new party has 25 seats.
– Likud has 20 mandates.
– Research institutes have 10 mandates.
– Democrats (Yair Golan) – 10 mandates.
– Yesh Atid – 9 mandates.
– The “state camp” has 9 mandates.
– The SAC has 9 mandates.
– Jewish Power – 8 mandates.
– Torah Jewry – 7 mandates.
– Hadash Ta’al – 5 mandates.
– The RMA has 5 mandates.
– “Religious Zionism” – 4 mandates.
BALAD and Saar’s party fail to get into the Knesset again.
These data show that Bennett takes seats from Gantz (7), Lieberman (6) and Lapid (3). As a result, his bloc gains 63 seats, giving it a majority in the Knesset (compared to 62 in the previous poll), while the current coalition gains only 48 seats (-1). Another 9 seats are won by Arab parties.
Optimism about hostage deal growing
Compared to the previous results, Israelis have become slightly more optimistic about the prospects for a successful hostage deal:
– 35% believe that the deal will be completed (previously 22%).
– 39% do not believe it.
– 26% are undecided.
Survey methodology
The survey involved 511 respondents representing a representative sample of the adult population of Israel (Jews and Arabs). The maximum margin of error is 4.4%.
