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Russia’s economy is gradually collapsing under the pressure of sanctions, and Putin’s choice is inevitable – either war or his own people. This was stated by Tom Keating, Director of the Centre for Financial Security at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies (RUSI), in an interview with Digi 24ro.
“The Russian economy is bursting at the seams – there is no doubt about that. It didn’t happen overnight, as some expected at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. But the sanctions are working. Inflation, high interest rates, excessive import costs – all this is weakening the Kremlin’s financial machine,” the expert said.
The West’s mistake is to expect a quick effect from sanctions
According to Keating, one of the key mistakes made by world leaders was to have high expectations of sanctions. They were supposed to gradually strangle the Russian economy, not immediately stop the war.
Today, the sanctions have three areas of effect:
– blocking the Russian financial system;
– restrictions on access to critical technologies;
– restrictions on oil and gas exports.
Oil is the Kremlin’s main vulnerability
The expert paid special attention to Russia’s shadow oil fleet – old tankers that transport oil without insurance to circumvent sanctions.
“Destroying this fleet is one of the main strategic goals of the West. This is Russia’s Achilles’ heel. If the Kremlin is deprived of oil export revenues, the consequences for the economy will be catastrophic,” Keating said.
According to him, the United States has ready mechanisms to strengthen sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet, and the decision will depend on the political will of Donald Trump.
Frozen Russian assets are the next frontline of the struggle
The EU and the UK continue discussions on the use of frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.
“This $200 billion in Europe is a morally just compensation for aggression. It’s time for more decisive action,” the expert stressed.
Keating also stressed that sanctions against Russia should be expanded, and dialogue with the countries of Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia should be flexible but persistent.
“The world is no longer unipolar. But Russia’s war against Ukraine is a war against international law and stability. Each country must make its own choice,” Tom Keating concluded.
