Ukraine’s power grid has suffered significant power losses, cutting its capacity by half as a result of Russia’s constant attacks. Politico writes about this, citing officials and experts analysing Kyiv’s preparations for winter conditions. As a result of these attacks, Ukrainian cities face daily power outages lasting from 8 to 20 hours.
Experts predict that the energy-saving measures taken by Kyiv will lead to prolonged blackouts for household consumers and industry, which could last for most of the day. In this crisis, Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear power, which also remains vulnerable to attack.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Centre, emphasises that in cold weather, the risk of attacks on nuclear facilities will increase, leading to power outages of up to 20 hours. According to him, the greatest risk will be observed when the temperature drops below 10 degrees for a long time.
The lack of heat and electricity in homes could lead to an increase in the number of refugees. “The situation is very critical, and I hope for quick support from international partners,” said Victoria Gryb, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s subcommittee on energy security. Her concerns are shared by international observers. A senior US administration official, commenting anonymously on the situation, said: “We are expecting a very difficult winter. People will die in their homes because of the destruction of energy infrastructure by Russia”.
In August alone, Moscow launched around 200 missile and drone strikes on energy facilities, resulting in a reduction in energy capacity of more than 9 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to eight power plants and more than 800 heating plants. Gennadiy Ryabtsev, chief researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, predicts that the “most realistic scenario” involves limiting power supply to residential buildings and industry for 8-14 hours in winter.
Oleksandr Kharchenko also noted that Ukraine’s dependence on nuclear power plants poses a great danger. Already, nuclear reactors provide 60% of Ukraine’s electricity, and any attack on these facilities could lead to a nationwide blackout.
In addition, Ukraine is facing a shortage of fuel reserves. According to energy expert Aura Sabadus, Ukraine does not have enough gas resources for this winter, and the absence of traders or Western companies on the Ukrainian market only complicates the situation. An energy crisis could have unpleasant consequences for the lives of Ukrainians and, consequently, increase the number of refugees, which, in turn, would affect the humanitarian situation in Europe.
Ukrainian authorities and international partners are trying to prevent such a scenario. Kharchenko said that power engineers have begun to strengthen the infrastructure using sandbags, metal cages filled with stones, and thick concrete structures. However, according to experts, these defence measures can only be effective against drone and individual missile attacks. They will not provide reliable protection against powerful missiles, such as the X-101, which Russia regularly uses to attack Ukraine.
