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5 April, Kyiv – The US dollar, which had been above the UAH 41 mark for a long time, has unexpectedly lost ground on the Ukrainian market. According to data from the Minfin portal, on 5 April, currency could be bought for less than UAH 41 in Kyiv’s currency exchangers, and in some locations – even for UAH 40.94.
What does the market show?
Based on average applications on the portal:
– The dollar buying rate: 40.88 UAH
– The course of the sale: 41.00 UAH
The dollar also fell on the interbank market, from UAH 41.4 to UAH 41.2, according to the Ministry of Finance.
Reasons: the world and Trump
Financiers attribute the situation to the global reaction to Donald Trump’s customs policy, in particular, the trade confrontation with global economies that has caused global dollar volatility.
“Demand for the dollar has decreased, and clients have become more likely to apply for sales. Transaction volumes are falling, but supply and demand are currently balanced,” the treasurer of one of the largest banks trading on the interbank market told EP.
At the same time, another treasurer noted that this does not necessarily mean a long-term depreciation of the dollar:
“The budget provides for a UAH 45 exchange rate. So the National Bank is unlikely to allow a significant drop – it will buy back excess currency to preserve budget revenues.”
NBU policy: fewer foreign currency sales
According to the NBU, from 31 March to 4 April, the volume of foreign currency sales on the interbank market more than halved to USD 391.9 million. This may indicate a gradual strengthening of the NBU’s reserve position, which is responding to the decline in market demand.
The Ukrainian FX market remains sensitive to international cues, and given the political tensions in the world, the dollar has not yet said the last word.
