Photo: ARMY INFORM
24 February 2025
Russia is increasingly relying on the support of Iran and North Korea to continue its aggression against Ukraine. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW ) warn: The Kremlin is forming a new “axis” of military support that allows Moscow to conduct intensive attacks, even against the backdrop of international sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
The Iranian trail: “Shahedi and production in Tatarstan
Iran plays a key role in providing Russia with drones for massive attacks on Ukrainian cities. The supply of Shahed kamikaze drones has enabled the Kremlin to carry out daily nighttime attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. But Iran has gone further – it has helped Russia set up its own Shahed factory in the Republic of Tatarstan, allowing Moscow to reduce its dependence on imports.
“Iran has actually become an accomplice in crimes against the civilian population of Ukraine, providing Russia with technologies for massive shelling,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence.
North Korea: a new supplier of ammunition and missiles
No less worrying is North Korea’s influence on the course of the war. According to Budanov, 50% of Russian ammunition currently comes from the DPRK. It’s not just conventional shells – North Korea has already begun massive supplies of heavy artillery:
– 170-mm self-propelled artillery systems
– 240-mm multiple launch rocket systems
But the biggest concern is the prospect of Russia receiving 148 ballistic missiles fromPyongyang as early as 2025. This could dramatically change the situation at the front, increasing the threat to Ukrainian cities.
Why does Russia turn to “outcasts”?
Iran and North Korea had been under international sanctions long before Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Now, these “outcasts” are forming a dangerous alliance with Russia, jointly opposing the West. For the Kremlin, such cooperation is a chance to circumvent sanctions and provide its troops with everything they need.
“They form a new axis of dictatorships ready to support each other in wars and repression,” the ISW analyst said.
ISW’s key findings for 23 February:
– The Istanbul Accordsof 2022 have reappeared in political discussions. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Whitkoff calledthem a “benchmark” for possible negotiations. However, Ukraine is unlikely to agree to such terms, as they imply a de facto surrender.
– President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remainscommitted to preserving democracy and resolving the conflict fairly, stressing that concessions to the aggressor are unacceptable.
– The Ukrainian defence industry continues todevelop. The government is focusing on increasing the production of domestic drones and shells.
– The night of 22-23 February wasa record-breaking one for the number of drone attacks in Ukraine. This is a symbolic “gift” from Russia on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
– Fighting continues on the frontline, with Ukrainian forces advancing near Toretsk, while Russians are conducting offensives near Siversk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
– The Kremlin’s crimes continueunabated. ISW has confirmed new facts of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian troops, which is a gross violation of international law.
Are there any chances for peace?
Given Iran and North Korea’s support for Russia, the prospect of a quick peace looks even more illusory. At the same time, the West is actively discussing new military aid packages for Ukraine, as well as developing strategies to counter the “axis of evil” – Russia, Iran and North Korea.
“This war is not just a fight for Ukraine. It is a struggle for global security, ” analysts say.
What’s next?
1. Western countries are consideringtougher sanctions against Iran and the DPRK for their support of Russia.
2. Ukraine continues tostrengthen its defence and increase its own arms production.
3. The international community is focusedon preventing Russia and its allies from turning Ukraine into a testing ground for new dictatorial alliances.
The war continues, but Ukraine is standing. And the world still has a chance to unite to stop the evil.
