Photo: Army Inform
Washington, 25 February 2025 – As former US President Donald Trump publicly questions Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia, a leading US military think tank has released a report titled “Russia’s Weakness Gives Leverage” that significantly changes the rhetoric surrounding the war.
The document states that the Russian economy and army are on the verge of exhaustion. According to optimistic forecasts for Ukraine, Moscow will be able to sustain active hostilities for a maximum of 1-1.5 years, after which it will have to seek a compromise.
Military losses: stocks of tanks and ammunition are running low
American analysts, using satellite images and intelligence, have released alarming statistics for the Kremlin:
– Only 47% of the pre-war stockpile of tanks remain at the bases, and a significant number are in disrepair.
– 52 per cent of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and 45 per cent of armoured personnel carriers (APCs) are still in use, but many are beyond repair.
– Russia has lost its artillery advantage, with the ratio of shells fired going from 5:1 in favour of Russia in 2023 to only 1.5:1 in December 2024.
The Kremlin’s dependence on North Korea’s assistance is particularly critical. According to the report, 60% of artillery and mortar shells fired in December last year came from the DPRK.
Problems of mobilisation: the war is becoming unpopular among Russians
Russia is facing increasingly serious mobilisation problems. The report states:
– The Kremlin is constantly raising military salaries to encourage mobilisation, but the number of people willing to serve is declining.
– In many regions of the Russian Federation, mobilisation plans are not being implemented, and the authorities are forced to resort to coercive methods.
– The losses of the Russian army have had a serious impact on public opinion, causing support for the war to fall even among the loyal population.
Economic crisis: the Kremlin’s stability is just an illusion
The economic front looks no less threatening for the Kremlin. Despite the efforts of the Russian media to create a picture of stability, analysts point to the following facts:
– Inflation in Russia is growing faster than official sources acknowledge, putting significant pressure on the social sector.
– The budget deficit is deepening, and funding for the army is crowding out other important sectors of the economy.
– Russia’s military-industrial complex suffers from a lack of personnel and resources, which makes it difficult to maintain stable arms production.
“In recent months, the Kremlin has been waging an information campaign to portray the economy as stable. However, the real state of the economy is much more strained than Russian officials admit,” the report says.
Scenario for 2025: Russia may not survive another year of war
Analysts predict that as early as 2025, Russia could be on the verge of collapse in the war, especially if the West does not weaken its support for Ukraine.
“Without mass mobilisation and a complete shift of the economy to war mode, the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the war after 2025,” experts say.
Trump vs Reality: Who Wins the Information War?
Against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s statements about Ukraine’s “inability to win”, this report directly contradicts such statements. Analysts emphasise that Trump’s public statements, which echo the Kremlin’s narratives, could play into Russia’s hands, especially in terms of reducing military support for Kyiv.
“This war is not only a struggle for Ukraine, but also for the future of the world order. The loss of Western support may prolong the war, but it will not change its final outcome,” the authors of the report note.
Analysts’ conclusions:
1. Russia is gradually losing its ability to actively engage in hostilities due tothe depletion of equipment, ammunition and human resources.
2. Dependence on the DPRK and Iran makes the Russian army vulnerable to sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
3. Economic problems increase pressure on the Kremlin, creating conditions for possible internal crises.
4. The West should maintain its support for Ukraine, as this is the only way to speed up the end of the war.
The war in Ukraine is approaching a decisive stage. Despite the pessimistic statements of some politicians, the facts show that Russia is weakening and Ukraine’s chances of victory are growing.
