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There is advice that never loses its relevance. One of them is from Donald Trump’s book The Art of the Deal: “Know when to walk away from the table”. That moment came for Trump in his negotiations with the Kremlin on a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea. Instead of a diplomatic breakthrough, we have a classic trap that the Russian side is skilfully building on the wreckage of diplomacy.
At first, things seemed encouraging: the parties claimed to have reached a certain agreement, but a close reading of official communiqués shows that there is no real agreement. Even Donald Trump, who is rarely prone to self-criticism, expressed his disappointment with Vladimir Putin’s tactics. The latter, while agreeing “in principle,” immediately set a number of preconditions. “Maybe they’re just stalling,” Trump suggested in an interview with Newsmax, recalling that he himself had once resorted to a similar tactic when he was not ready to make a deal.
This is still an optimistic scenario. In reality, the US administration is simply being used. According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin sees the naval “truce” as a way to break international sanctions that have been dealing a powerful blow to the Russian economy since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Another goal is to sow discord among Western allies.
Putin is not waiting for Kyiv’s consent. He is playing on the weakening of unity: if Ukraine refuses, Washington may suspend military support, which would open up new opportunities for Russia on the battlefield. If the West accedes to Moscow’s demands, it will mean a weakening of the sanctions regime without any end to the war. Both are wins for the Kremlin.
Western Europe has already signalled that it is not ready to revise the sanctions imposed for military aggression. However, in order to fulfil Russia’s key demand – restoring access to the SWIFT payment system – Trump will have to open a conflict with Brussels. Given Hungary’s position, which could block the extension of sanctions, a confrontation with the EU would not only be uncomfortable, it would be explosive.
But the most important thing is the nature of the agreement itself. There are virtually no active hostilities in the western part of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian navy has ousted the Russians, and grain exports are again approaching pre-war levels. Yes, the agreement may slightly reduce insurance costs, but it will not bring any strategic benefits. This is a “deal for the sake of a deal”, not for the sake of peace.
Meanwhile, Russia’s conditions are on a completely different scale. The Kremlin wants to legalise the return of its banks to financial markets under the guise of humanitarian trade. In reality, it is a mechanism for financing not only the economy but also the military machine. And all this is in exchange for an agreement that changes nothing.
Another risk is that by agreeing to these terms now, Trump will lose his main lever of pressure – sanctions. This will mean that the US will approach serious negotiations on ending the war without a bargaining chip. And Putin is well aware of this. He has already tied the cessation of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to the Black Sea truce – and this is just the beginning of blackmail.
Kyiv does not believe in the sincerity of these talks – and with good reason. In Ukraine, these talks are viewed with caution, wariness, and often indignation. And for good reason: instead of concessions from the aggressor, we see only new conditions, new manipulations, and new threats.
In his book, Trump wrote another important thing: “The worst thing you can do in a deal is to look like you’re too eager to make it. It gives the other side the smell of blood, and then you’re dead.”
When it comes to a truce in the Black Sea, the water already smells of blood. And it is not on Putin’s side.
