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Baghdad/Washington – For the first time in many years, a number of influential Shiite groups in Iraq, backed by Iran, have expressed their readiness to disarm to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States. Reuters reports this with reference to 10 senior commanders and Iraqi officials.
The reason is Trump and the US ultimatum
As it has become known, after repeated warnings from the administration of President Donald Trump to the Iraqi government that in case of inaction, the United States could launch air strikes on the militias, several militant factions began serious negotiations with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
“The factions are not being stubborn – they understand that they could be targeted by the US,” said Shiite politician Izzat al-Shahbandar, who is close to the government alliance.
Key groups ready to lay down their arms:
– Kataib Hezbollah
– “Nujabaa”
– Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada
– Ansarullah al-Aufiya
These forces are part of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”, an umbrella structure of more than 50,000 militants with access to long-range missiles and air defence.
“Trump is ready to take the war to another level. We know this and we want to avoid a catastrophe,” said the Kataib Hezbollah commander.
IRGC gave the green light
According to field commanders, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the “axis of resistance,” allowed the factions to act at their own discretion to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with the United States and Israel.
Since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, the groups have carried out dozens of rocket and drone attacks on US and Israeli bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, including an operation that led to the deaths of three US servicemen.
The risk of a violent scenario
“This time, the answer ‘no’ may not suit Washington,” warns Ibrahim al-Sumaidi, a former adviser to the prime minister.
If peaceful disarmament fails, the United States may resort to coercion to eliminate Iranian proxies in Iraq. Among the options currently being discussed by Baghdad with militant leaders:
– integration into the Iraqi army,
– transformation of groups into political parties.
Weakening the Iranian axis
Analysts see the concessions of Shiite formations as a sign of the weakening of Iran’s “axis of resistance”. After the war in Gaza, Hamas is being attacked in the Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis under US air strikes in Yemen. Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is also losing stability.
Now, Iraq, which is trying to balance between the US and Iran, is facing a historic decision – whether it can disarm Iran’s proxies on its soil without war, and what this will mean for the balance in the Middle East.
