The Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian forces captured at least 11 Russian settlements by Thursday, while the Financial Times estimates the total area under Ukrainian forces’ control at 350 square kilometers. Despite the assurances of the Russian military command that the situation is under control, local residents who left their homes claim the opposite. The Kremlin implicitly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation by declaring a state of emergency in the region on Friday.
The Ukrainian military operation on the border with the Kursk region, which has been going on for the fourth day, continues to cause concern in Moscow, despite the statements of the Russian leadership about stopping the offensive. A federal state of emergency was declared in Kursk on Friday, although Russian authorities continue to insist that the situation is under control.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are participating in the hostilities, and Kyiv allegedly lost 600 soldiers and 82 units of armored vehicles. However, these figures cannot be independently verified.
Kyiv has not officially commented on the operation, although some statements by Ukrainian officials hint at its planning. Western allies of Ukraine also claim that they were not informed in advance about this offensive, but support Kyiv’s right to autonomy in planning its military operations.
Unlike previous cross-border raids, this operation involves regular forces from at least four brigades, verified video footage confirms. This indicates careful planning of the operation, analysts of the Financial Times note. The use of Western equipment, including American Stryker armored personnel carriers and German Marder combat vehicles, has also been confirmed at the scene.
Russian military bloggers criticize their forces for shortcomings in strengthening the border, emphasizing the loss of populated areas, in particular Suzhi. Local residents report difficulties with evacuation and claim that the authorities knew about the preparation of the Ukrainian offensive, but did not take the necessary measures.
The purpose of the operation remains unclear, but analysts believe that Kyiv may be trying to distract Russian troops from an offensive in eastern Ukraine or improve its position in possible peace talks with Moscow.
