On 6 August 2024, Ukrainian regular troops entered the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. This event dramatically changed the perception of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began in 2014 and continued in 2022 with a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The war has been going on for three years, and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions have been seized. For three years now, the Russians have been firing missiles, bombs and combat unmanned aerial drones at the entire territory of Ukraine.
Russia planned to quickly capture Kyiv in 2022 “in three days”, and now, in 2024, Ukrainian troops are seizing the territories of the Kursk (and Belgorod) regions of the Russian Federation.
Now we can say what the appearance of Ukrainian troops on Russian territory means:
1. The arguments about Russia’s “second world army” and its capabilities have been completely erased. In fact, in practice, Russian troops with nuclear weapons can neither prevent and predict nor defend against an attack on their territory. They cannot protect their borders or their population. The reputation of the Russian army and special services is very low. This is a complete fiasco of Russian intelligence and the misleading of Putin’s supreme commander, Commander-in-Chief Gerasimov.
2. The arguments about the Kremlin’s “red lines”, which the West and NATO are so afraid of, have been erased. NATO member states fear an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict because they believe that Putin will use nuclear weapons. Everyone has seen that he will not. Therefore, all security concepts regarding Russia need to be revised. The enemy is not as scary as they fear.
3. 3. There was a “break in the patterns” in the world’s perception of this war. The Ukrainian army has once again surprised not only with its unique and effective defence of the country against the invaders, but also with its counter-attack on Russian territory. Who else in the world has occupied the world’s largest nuclear power?
4. 4. The “freezing of the conflict” has now acquired new colours. If the occupied territories of Ukraine are to be frozen, then the occupied territories of Russia must also be frozen. This is Ukraine’s new negotiating position in the international arena. The occupied territory of the Russian Federation can be exchanged for the occupied territory of Ukraine.
Putin no longer holds “all the cards”. He is now an ordinary player in this game.
5. By attacking the Kursk region, Ukraine changed the course of the war and seized the initiative. The dynamics of the war have accelerated and the forecasts of the situation are now completely different than they could have been.
6. Putin cannot declare war on Ukraine, but can only declare a “counter-terrorist operation”. This is a blow to his reputation. The war he started against Ukraine is now on Russian territory. War is a game in which two parties take part, not just one. Now ordinary Russians are beginning to understand this.
7. Now the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region has forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and transfer forces and assets from the frontline in Ukraine to the territory of Russia, not for attack, but for defence.
8. 8. Ukraine has received a “moral boost”, that it still has the energy and imagination to win this war.
