Ukrainian soldiers fire a D-30 cannon from an artillery position on the Toretsk front. Photo: AA/ABACA / Abaca Press
The Times analysts presented four realistic options for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, emphasising the key role of US President-elect Donald Trump in this process.
Although unlikely scenarios such as Putin’s sudden death or an unexpected breakthrough of the Ukrainian counteroffensive were rejected, experts drew attention to the potential impact of US policy on the development of events.
Scenario 1: Ukraine’s defeat
This worst-case scenario assumes continued Russian aggression and no peace talks. If the US cuts its support for Ukraine, the country risks a military defeat. The consequences of such a scenario would be catastrophic:
- Massive influx of Ukrainian refugees abroad.
- Thousands of Ukrainians will end up in Russian prisons.
- NATO would lose its strategic advantage, allowing Russian troops to reach Poland’s borders.
Scenario 2: “Bad peace”
If Western support declines, Ukraine may be forced to make a deal from a position of weakness. Such a deal would include:
- The division of Ukraine’s territories.
- Establishment of a pro-Russian government.
This would be a de facto defeat for Ukraine and its allies.
Scenario 3: Temporary ceasefire
This scenario assumes a cessation of hostilities, which could have two possible outcomes:
- If the ceasefire is accompanied by a comprehensive peace agreement, it could stabilise the region and ensure Ukrainian sovereignty.
- If an agreement is not reached, the situation risks turning into a “frozen conflict”, as it was after the Minsk agreements, creating the preconditions for a new phase of war.
Scenario 4: Peaceful settlement
The most optimistic scenario depends on active US support. It provides for:
- Security guarantees.
- Preservation of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- Economic stability.
In this case, Ukraine would be able to negotiate from a position of strength, but a return to the 1991 borders remains unlikely. A compromise on territories may be necessary.
The election of Donald Trump could fundamentally change the US strategy towards war. His decisions to support Ukraine or, conversely, to move closer to Russia will affect global geopolitical stability.
