The North Korean military contingent of about 12,000 troops engaged in combat operations against Ukrainian defence forces in the Kursk region may suffer critical losses over the next three months. This conclusion was made by experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their latest report, based on the current rate of North Korean casualties.

Data on casualties
According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, since the North Korean forces began participating in major combat operations in December 2024, their losses have been about 92 people a day. By mid-January, 300 DPRK soldiers had been killed and another 2,700 wounded.

“If the rate of casualties remains at this level, the entire North Korean contingent could be killed or wounded in about 12 weeks, i.e. by mid-April 2025,” the ISW report says.

Factors affecting combat effectiveness
Experts also emphasise that in the DPRK troops, as in other armed conflicts, the proportion of wounded will prevail over the proportion of killed. However, it remains to be seen whether wounded soldiers will be able to return to combat and in what timeframe.

Consequences for North Korea and Russia
Increased casualties among North Korean troops could put considerable pressure on Pyongyang, which risks losing a significant portion of its military contingent abroad. For Russia, the use of foreign forces, such as those from the DPRK, indicates the depletion of its own resources and the need to attract additional reserves to support the fighting.