The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek a temporary cessation of hostilities from 8 to 10 May in order to gain an operational pause, redeploy reserves and increase information pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners.
The ISW report notes that such a “truce” may be presented as a gesture of “goodwill” timed to coincide with the 9 May celebrations in Russia, but in fact it will be a tool to achieve the Kremlin’s strategic goals.
Analysts also point to a possible attempt by Moscow to accuse Kyiv of violating the hypothetical truce in order to discredit Ukraine in the international arena. At the same time, Russia has never adhered to the terms of a ceasefire if it contradicted its military goals.
The ISW warns that Ukrainian and Western governments should be sceptical of any “peace initiatives” by the Kremlin that emerge against the backdrop of military escalation.
