Shahed Photo: social media / WillWest News /

Russia is stepping up preparations for a “winter campaign” against Ukraine in 2024-2025 by scaling up production of Shahed drones and developing new low-tech models, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Scaling up production

The plant in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (Republic of Tatarstan) produced 5,760 Shaheds between January and September 2024, which is twice as many as in the whole of 2023. According to leaked documents, the company has signed an agreement to produce another 6,000 drones by September 2025.

At the same time, Russia plans to produce 10,000 decoy drones, similar to “chessmen”, by the end of 2024. These models are aimed at overcoming Ukrainian air defences and increasing the effectiveness of strikes.

New facilities and logistics

To increase production capacity, two new workshops were built at the Alabuga plant. Drone protection nets were installed over the buildings. A new railway station has been built to provide components, providing a direct link between Russia and China.

Challenges due to sanctions

Despite the increased production, Russia is facing significant technical difficulties due to Western sanctions. The factories are forced to use low-quality engines made in China, which limits the effectiveness of the new drones.

Opposition from Ukraine

Ukrainian forces, in turn, are improving electronic warfare and air defence, successfully neutralising the threat of the Shahed. Effective interaction of air defence systems helps to reduce the impact of massive attacks and inflict significant losses on the Russian air force.

ISW analysts point out that despite Russia’s efforts, its technical base remains weak due to a lack of quality components and dependence on low-tech equipment. This creates serious obstacles to the implementation of its “winter campaign”.