Vladimir Putin. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / AP
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) explained why Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is obsessed with the Oreshnik ballistic missile. According to the experts, the Kremlin is using this project as part of its non-nuclear deterrence strategy to put pressure on the West and limit support for Ukraine.
A new tool of intimidation
According to the ISW, Putin is trying to position the Oreshnik as a weapon capable of causing fear and uncertainty among Western countries. This is being done against the backdrop of the failure of the Kremlin’s previous rhetoric on the use of nuclear weapons, which did not produce the desired results.
The Kremlin’s goals:
- Sow fear among Ukraine’s Western partners:
Putin wants Western powers to fear the consequences of using Oreshnik, which he believes could force them to reconsider their support for Ukraine. - Pressure on the West to limit Ukrainian strikes:
The Kremlin is seeking to reduce the number of Ukrainian attacks on military targets in Russia that are carried out with Western weapons.
Abandoning nuclear rattling
ISW analysts point out that Putin is actively emphasising the non-nuclear capabilities of the Oreshnik. This is likely an attempt to move away from threatening statements about nuclear weapons, which are increasingly being ignored by the international community.
“The actions of Ukraine and its Western partners have actually neutralised the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail, so now Putin is trying to find other ways to influence,” ISW analysts say.
It remains to be seen whether the Kremlin will be able to achieve its goals with this new intimidation, but so far the West has shown unity in its support for Ukraine.
