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Nasrallah Avoids Escalation, but Commanders Demand Aggression
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is not interested in further escalating the conflict with Israel, which could lead to a full-scale war. However, field commanders are pressuring him to take more aggressive actions. In an interview with “Maariv,” Amatzia Baram, a leading Israeli Arabist and professor at Haifa University, noted that recent Israeli strikes in Dahiya have deeply affected Hezbollah’s field commanders. They now feel personally endangered, realizing that Israel has extensive knowledge about Lebanon and each of them individually.
The Humiliation and Pressure from Commanders
Baram emphasizes that field commanders feel deeply humiliated by Israel’s successful strikes in Lebanon’s heartland, prompting them to demand more aggressive action from Nasrallah. “He doesn’t want a major war, but the pressure from below is growing,” Baram explains.
Hezbollah’s Structure: Commanders’ Influence on Nasrallah’s Decisions
According to Baram, Hezbollah’s structure doesn’t follow the typical vertical hierarchy seen in many terrorist organizations. Field commanders have direct access to the Secretary-General and openly share their views. This gives them significant influence over the organization’s leadership. Baram believes Nasrallah may have to yield to this pressure to maintain the support of Hezbollah’s military wing.
Missile Threat Persists Despite Losses in Leadership
Despite the elimination of some senior Hezbollah commanders, the group’s missile forces remain operational. Baram points out that most missile operators were trained by Iranian advisors, and their operations are unaffected by the loss of leadership, allowing Hezbollah to continue missile attacks at any range.
Will Nasrallah Opt for Full-Scale War?
It remains unclear whether Nasrallah will choose a major war or limited escalation. Many observers believe that a full-scale war is not in Iran’s interest, as it uses Hezbollah’s arsenal for its strategic purposes. Tehran may pressure Nasrallah to avoid a regional conflict.
Israeli Experts’ Views: The Need for Israel’s Active Response
“Fauda” creator and Arabist Avi Issacharoff highlights Nasrallah’s capability to target all of Israel but notes that he has so far limited strikes to the north, signaling restraint.
Kobi Marom, a reserve colonel and former commander of the “Hermon” Brigade, believes Hezbollah will not negotiate with Israel unless it suffers significant losses. Marom stressed that Israel has a historic opportunity to destroy Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal to protect future generations.
Military analyst Nir Dvori similarly argues that Israel must act decisively and on a large scale to force Nasrallah to the negotiating table, stating that a long war of attrition is unsustainable for Israel.
