Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned of possible severe measures in response to potential Western authorization for Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia. Analysts cited by Reuters suggest that these measures could include strikes on British military assets near Russia or, in an extreme scenario, nuclear tests as a show of force.
As tensions between the East and West escalate, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Joe Biden discussed in Washington on Friday whether to allow Kyiv to use American ATACMS missiles or British Storm Shadow rockets against Russian targets.
In his most explicit warning yet, Putin stated that the West would be crossing a significant line and directly engaging in conflict with Russia if Ukraine is permitted to launch attacks against it. He promised a “proportional” response but did not specify what this would entail. Earlier this year, Putin also suggested the possibility of arming Western proxies with Russian weapons to target Western interests and deploying missiles within range of the U.S. and its European allies.
“Nuclear Tests as a Possible Scenario”
Ulrich Kühn, a weapons expert at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, has not ruled out the possibility that Putin might opt to conduct nuclear tests to send a message of intimidation. “This would be a dramatic escalation of the conflict. If the West continues with its plans, Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons as a last resort,” Kühn stated in an interview.
Russia has not conducted nuclear tests since 1990, and any resumption of such tests would signal the start of a potentially more perilous era in international relations. Kühn also noted that Putin might feel pressured by ongoing Western support for Ukraine and could use nuclear tests as part of his strategy.
Possible Russian Actions
Gerhard Mangott, a security expert at the University of Innsbruck, also considers it possible, though unlikely, that Russia could conduct nuclear tests to demonstrate its seriousness. “Russia could conduct a test of tactical nuclear weapons somewhere in the east of the country to show that they are serious about their threats,” Mangott added.
Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya warned the UN Security Council on Friday that NATO would become a “direct participant in combat” against a nuclear state if it allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia.
Response to Potential Attacks
Should Britain permit Ukraine to launch Storm Shadow missiles at Russia, Moscow might take several actions, including closing its embassy in London and the British embassy in Moscow, targeting British drones and military aircraft near Russia, and potentially striking bases housing F-16s that transport Storm Shadows to Romania and Poland, according to former Kremlin adviser Sergey Markov.
Putin has previously attempted to set red lines for the West, and his repeated warnings are seen both inside and outside Russia as indications that he may need to act if London or Washington allows the use of their missiles against Russia.
Conflict Outlook
Experts believe that, barring nuclear diversion or attacks on British assets, a more predictable response could involve intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Mangott forecasts that Kyiv would bear the brunt of any Russian military response if the West grants permission, and he does not expect a direct Russian military assault on NATO territory.
Another possibility could be an increase in Russia’s “hybrid” actions, such as diversions in Europe or interference in U.S. elections, Kühn suggested.
Mangott emphasized that the West is uncertain where Putin’s actual red lines are. “Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons with the aid of Western satellites and military advisors is something that severely impacts Russia’s vital interests,” he said. “So those who think, ‘Nothing will happen, let’s just do it,’ are mistaken,” Mangott added.
