photo: REUTERS / SCANPIX
“There is not a single conflict in the world whose assessment will not change under the influence of the new administration in Washington,” Bruno Kahl, President of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said in an interview with DW on 8 March 2025. This opinion, expressed against the backdrop of alarming global instability, underscores the central role of the United States in modern geopolitics. For Kahl, however, the key topic remains Russia’s war against Ukraine, a conflict that he sees as a litmus test for the future of European security. Will Europe be able to survive if American support finally slips through its fingers?
Intelligence as a shield: European solidarity in the face of Russia
Kahl is convinced that European intelligence services should join forces to provide Ukraine with relevant information to strengthen its defence. “I still hope that we will be able to defend Ukraine, especially from Russia. This is a task that the West must accomplish together,” he said, adding that European governments are making “extraordinary efforts” in this direction. However, his words about the hope that the Americans will return to active support sound a wake-up call: without the United States, the European front looks vulnerable.
This vulnerability became particularly apparent after Washington’s decision on 5 March to suspend the transfer of not only arms but also intelligence to Ukraine. CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed this step, and US Presidential Advisor Michael Waltz added that assistance would resume only if Kyiv starts peace talks with Moscow. Is this pragmatic pressure on Ukraine or a concession to the Kremlin? The answer remains unclear, but the consequences are already tangible.
Losing Eyes: How the lack of US data is weakening Ukraine
In its analysis, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that cutting off Kyiv’s access to US intelligence “will significantly hamper Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks on military and civilian targets”. Without American data, the ATACMS and HIMARS systems, which allowed for targeted strikes on the occupied territories and even deep into Russia, lose their effectiveness. “This could change the behaviour of Russian pilots, allowing them to operate closer to the front line, as well as expand the use of guided bombs in frontline areas,” ISW experts warn.
This loss is reminiscent of the words of Sun Tzu: “Knowing the enemy and knowing yourself, you can not be afraid of the outcome of a hundred battles.” Deprived of American “eyes”, Ukraine finds itself in the dark, and Russia gets a chance to seize the initiative. For Europe, this is not just a tactical problem, but a strategic threat.
Putin’s plans: Ukraine as a springboard to a new order
Bruno Kahl sees the war in a broader context. “An early end to the conflict in Ukraine will allow Russia to direct its energy where it wants it to go – against Europe,” he warns. According to him, Putin’s real goal is not only to conquer Ukraine, but to create a new world order where NATO is in retreat and Moscow’s sphere of influence expands to the West. “Best of all, without the Americans in Europe,” Kahl adds, hinting at a long-held Kremlin dream that now seems closer than ever.
This view echoes Max Weber’s idea that “politics is the slow drilling of solid boards”. Russia has been patiently advancing its strategy, and the US’s refusal to actively engage could be an unexpected gift for it. Is Europe ready to fill the gap?
Intelligence network: strength in unity
Kahl emphasises the critical role of cooperation between global intelligence agencies. “No country can cope with threats ranging from Russian aggression to Islamist terrorism on its own,” he states. According to him, data exchange is not just a technical necessity, but a matter of survival. When asked about Germany’s dependence on American intelligence, he admits: “We rely on our friends across the Atlantic, as they rely on us. Information that saves lives knows no borders.”
This interdependence is reminiscent of the words of John Donne: “No man is an island.” Even if the political winds in Washington change, Kahl hopes that intelligence sharing with the US will continue. But will it be enough to deter Russia?
Europe at a crossroads
The situation presents Europe with a difficult choice: strengthen its own intelligence and defence capabilities or wait for America to return to the negotiating table. While Germany and its allies are trying to support Ukraine, the shadow of American politics reminds us of the fragility of the current order. As Albert Camus wrote, “Man has only one true luxury: the luxury of hope.” For Bruno Kahl, this hope is still alive, but its limits are becoming more and more visible. Will Europe be able to become self-sufficient in the face of the threat from the East? The answer depends not only on intelligence, but also on political will – both in Berlin and across the ocean.
