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A series of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, as well as the weak response of Tehran’s allies, indicate the collapse of the regional system of influence created by Iran over decades. The military-political “axis of resistance”, which was supposed to deter the threats of Israel and the United States, is actually crumbling, Le Monde and the New York Times write.
Previously, Iran and its proxy allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria – demonstrated strength and influence. Tehran had the support of Russia and China, and the alliance with the Kremlin strengthened Iran’s position in the region.
Now the situation is different – even Vladimir Putin is silent, the allies are distancing themselves, and Iran itself is almost alone in the face of one of the most acute threats in decades.
The collapse of a ten-year strategy
After the 1980s, when Iran emerged from an eight-year war with Iraq, the country’s leadership invested billions of dollars in creating a network of proxy groups, from Hamas and Hezbollah to Shiite militias in Iraq. These structures were supposed to keep enemies away from Iranian territory.
However, after the elimination of legendary commander Qassem Soleimani by US drones in 2020, this system began to lose effectiveness. His successors centralised the leadership of the proxy groups, making them more vulnerable to Israeli intelligence.
After the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, proxy groups suffered heavy losses. Hezbollah, once Iran’s main ally, is now virtually paralysed: its leaders have been eliminated, its arsenals destroyed, and its influence in Lebanon shaken.
The loss of the Assad regime in Syria in autumn 2024 further weakened the Iranian “axis of resistance”. Syria was a key transit hub for weapons and funding for proxy groups in the region.
“We are witnessing the collapse of an Iranian regional strategy that has been shaped for decades,” Firas Maksad, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told the New York Times.
Proxies are left alone
Iran’s allies are increasingly avoiding direct involvement in the war. The Houthis, following an agreement with the United States in May, limited their attacks on the Red Sea. Iraqi militias, under pressure from local elites, are trying not to get involved in a new confrontation. Hezbollah is silent.
“The Iranian network does not work on a one-for-all basis, and the allies can see that,” says Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group.
What Russia will do is an open question
Russia, despite its loud statements in the past, is now also distancing itself. Direct intervention by the Kremlin would alienate Russia’s new partners in the region – the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Moscow’s resources are focused on the war against Ukraine.
Even the Gulf states, which until recently had strong relations with Tehran, are now keeping their distance. According to the NYT, many of them privately express their desire to weaken Iran.
“Iran hasn’t been so isolated since the end of the Iran-Iraq war,” emphasises Randa Slim of the Johns Hopkins University Foreign Policy Institute. According to her, the current situation is an existential threat to Iran.
