North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Photo: East News.
North Korea could send up to 100,000 troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine if cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow continues to develop, according to sources familiar with the estimates of some G20 countries. According to the TimeUkraineIsrael portal, citing Bloomberg, this scenario is part of an analysis of the deepening partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Estimates indicate that military support could be provided in batches with rotation of troops rather than a one-time massive deployment.
Possibility of sending up to 15,000 North Korean troops to Russia
Earlier this month, Ukraine’s ambassador to South Korea, Dmytro Ponomarenko, made a similar assessment. In an interview with the Voice of America, he said that Kyiv expects North Korea to send up to 15,000 of its military to take part in hostilities in Russia’s Kursk region and the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine, with the units being replaced every few months.
Concerns of Ukraine’s allies over the escalation of the conflict
While South Korean officials and the president have not commented on the situation, the possibility of North Korean troops deploying has raised serious concerns among Ukraine’s allies. They believe that such an escalation could only deepen the already large-scale conflict and further destabilise the situation in Europe. In particular, the strengthening of ties between Putin and Kim could lead to new changes in the geopolitical balance in the Indo-Pacific region, where competition between China and the United States is growing.
Discussions at the G-20 Summit and the possible influence of China
This issue has already been discussed at the G-20 summit in Brazil, in particular during the meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Scholz stressed that the deployment of North Korean troops was a “serious escalation” of the war against Ukraine and expressed hope that China would use its influence to prevent further escalation.
Possible technological threats from North Korea
It is worth noting that China has not publicly commented on the issue of sending North Korean troops to Russia, which may indicate Beijing’s possible dissatisfaction with this situation. At the same time, North Korea’s partnership with Russia could increase economic pressure on China, particularly in the context of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House and possible customs restrictions.
North Korea as a military and arms supplier to Russia
North Korea has already sent more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region, a territory partially occupied by Ukrainian forces after the August invasion. In exchange for this assistance, Russia provides financial support and assistance to North Korea in developing its military capabilities.
Threat to regional security by providing Russia with advanced technologies
South Korea also expresses concern about the possibility of transferring advanced technologies to Russia, such as tactical nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles and reconnaissance satellites, which would significantly worsen regional security. In addition, North Korea has already supplied Russia with millions of artillery rounds and long-range missile systems. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Pyongyang also provides Moscow with long-range missiles and artillery systems.
Ukraine’s response and requests for long-range weapons
Against this backdrop, Ukraine has been asking its allies for several months to allow it to use long-range Western weapons to strike Russian military targets deep inside Russia, which would help counter Moscow’s numerous attacks, including those on critical infrastructure.
