According to analyst firm OAG, the number of bookings for flights from Canada to the United States has decreased by more than 70% every month until September 2025. A comparison of this year’s data with the same period last year shows a marked drop in demand for flights between the two countries, reflecting a decline in tourist activity and business travel. This was reported by Business Insider.
OAG, an international travel data provider headquartered in the UK, analysed changes in the number of bookings by comparing 2025 data with the previous year. As airlines are used to putting tickets on sale in advance, analysts took into account forecasts up to September 2025. In addition, OAG reports a gradual reduction in flight capacity between Canada and the US by 3.5% in July and August.
“The sharp decline in demand suggests that passengers are holding off on booking tickets, likely due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade conflict,” said John Grant, chief analyst at OAG.
The decline in demand was also confirmed by United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, who said that the airline was seeing a “significant decline in passenger traffic from Canada to the United States”. In addition, data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicate that fewer than 500,000 people crossed the land border from Canada to the U.S. in February, a 12.5% decline year-on-year.
Passengers are choosing other destinations, such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and airlines are responding by reducing the number of seats on flights to the US. WestJet, Canada’s second largest carrier, cancelled routes between New York and Calgary and between Orlando and Edmonton, while increasing the number of flights to Europe.
“We are focused on continuing to fly where there is demand,” said WestJet, adding that there has been a significant shift in bookings to sunny destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, as well as transatlantic flights.
At the same time, at the end of March, Donald Trump announced the introduction of additional duties of 25% on all cars and auto parts that are not produced in the US. This decision, which will come into effect on 2 April, further increases economic tensions between the two countries. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, in turn, said that the “old engagement” between Canada and the United States is now finally over.
