China has reaffirmed its willingness to work with the United States on the basis of mutual respect, official Beijing said on Wednesday, as Donald Trump is close to winning the presidential election. However, according to analysts, Beijing expects tensions to increase in the areas of trade, technology and security, Reuters reports .
“Our policy towards the United States is consistent,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said during a press conference in Beijing, adding that China will continue to adhere to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and cooperation beneficial to both countries.
However, Chinese strategists believe that Trump’s second term will bring more harsh statements and possibly new customs restrictions that could significantly hit China’s economy. Some experts suggest that Trump’s isolationist foreign policy will create additional opportunities for China to expand its influence on the global stage.
“While Trump’s victory is not a desirable outcome for China, it is expected, and the country’s leadership will likely seek to maintain the appearance of a friendly relationship with Trump while strengthening its own position on the international stage,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The threat of new duties and political restrictions
One of the biggest risks for China remains a possible return to a customs war. Trump has already announced his intention to increase duties on Chinese goods to 60% and cancel the status of China’s largest trading partner, which could undermine the Chinese economy, which is currently struggling with internal challenges.
“Beijing is particularly concerned about the resumption of the customs war, as China is currently facing significant economic difficulties at home,” Zhao said.
It is also expected that Trump may accelerate the process of disconnecting technological and production chains, which will be a new challenge for China’s economic growth and stability. In response, Beijing is likely to accelerate programmes to achieve technological and economic independence and seek to strengthen relations with countries such as Russia.
“China is likely to develop a clear list of possible concessions to negotiate with Washington, hoping that Trump will focus on US domestic issues, allowing Beijing to sort out its own economic problems,” said Brian Wong, a geostrategy professor at the University of Hong Kong.
Expanding influence in an international vacuum
Experts predict that China will also strengthen its positions in the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia, expecting Trump to pursue isolationist and anti-globalisation policies. In October, China managed to establish a dialogue with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and resumed contacts with the new Japanese government, despite years of tension in relations.
“China expects the Trump administration to further distance itself from international agreements and commitments, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence where there is a vacuum,” Zhao added.
Amid these changes, Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive topics. Biden’s policy included closer military support for Taiwan, including the sale of $2 billion worth of arms. According to Chinese analysts, Trump may avoid such an overt approach to Taiwan by adopting a pragmatic strategy.
China is preparing for changes in its relations with the United States, aiming to maintain stability in the region and promote its influence in the international arena.
