Donald Trump won the US presidential election because he successfully anticipated changes in global politics, says Sten Reining, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Odense. In his opinion, the world is entering an era of strategic competition, where trade is becoming less open and more controlled, and financial markets are becoming more volatile due to politicians’ reactions to national security threats, Pionline writes.
The expert notes that Trump’s new presidency will not only mark the rise of nationalism, but also an active struggle for strategic advantages and security. “I don’t think the Trump team is abandoning liberalism completely. We are seeing a shift to a more nationalistic, populist version of that approach,” Reining said at the P&I World Pension Summit in The Hague.
The expert emphasises that this time, Trump is less affected by suspicions of Russian interference in the election, so abrupt decisions, particularly regarding Ukraine, may seem undesirable to his team. After all, the threat from China is increasingly intertwined in Republican politics.
Reining also pointed out that during Trump’s first term, the COVID-19 pandemic was a determining factor in harsh criticism of China, and this time around, Trump is likely to look for similar threats to realise his vision.
At the same time, the expert warns that Trump’s possible second presidency could again be characterised by instability in the leadership. “Trump’s fourth national security adviser mentioned that every morning she was tasked with aligning policy with his nightly tweets. I don’t think this style is going to go away,” said Reining.
These forecasts underscore expectations of a challenging political climate, where the priority of national interests in the United States will be accompanied by increased strategic challenges for allies and opponents.
