Photo: Patrick Pleul / SCANPIX / dpa
German Defence Minister Carsten Breuer has warned of a growing military threat from the Russian Federation, which could materialise by 2029 or even earlier. He said this in an interview with the BBC.
According to Breuer, Russia has already produced more than four million 152-mm artillery rounds in 2024, and not all of them were used in the war against Ukraine. In addition, Moscow annually produces up to 1,500 battle tanks, many of which are not sent to the frontline but remain in reserve or form new units concentrated in the western direction.
“Not all tanks are sent to the frontline to participate in the war in Ukraine, they remain in storage and in new military structures that are always oriented towards the West,” the German minister stressed.
Breuer noted that NATO faces the most serious threat from Russia in decades. In particular, it is a possible attack on the Baltic states, especially through the strategically vulnerable Suwalki Corridor, a narrow land isthmus between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus.
“The Baltic states are very vulnerable to the Russians… You can really feel it in the negotiations we are conducting there,” the minister said. According to him, Estonian residents compare a potential war to a forest fire, “where they can already feel the heat, see the flames and inhale the smoke”.
The German official stressed that NATO must be ready to repel potential aggression today, not just in 2029, when analysts estimate that an attack could occur.
Despite recent divergences in the positions of some Allies, including Hungary and Slovakia, Breuer said there was unprecedented unity among NATO countries in understanding the threat posed by Russia.
“We all have to move towards deterrence and collective defence. Everyone understands this. Everyone sees the urgency,” the minister concluded.
He also stressed that Russia does not see the war in Ukraine as a separate conflict, but as part of a larger confrontation with the West, in which Moscow is constantly “testing the strength” of NATO’s defences.
