Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, with Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Photo by T: Iranian Supreme Leader’S Office / Zuma Press
A top-secret power struggle is unfolding in Iran’s highest echelons: behind closed doors, the country’s spiritual leaders are preparing the ground for a possible replacement of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Against the backdrop of recent Israeli airstrikes, threats from Washington and growing domestic protests, this could be the most defining moment for the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
The three-person committee, established by Khamenei two years ago, has intensified its work, Reuters reports, citing five informed sources. According to them, in the event of Khamenei’s assassination or death, the elite in Tehran plans to immediately announce his successor to avoid chaos and demonstrate stability in the international arena.
Two favourites: continuing the line or cautious reform
Two figures are at the centre of the discussion:
- Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the current leader, a hardline conservative and “shadowy influencer” who has never held official office but has serious leverage. He is a faithful copy of his father in terms of both his leadership style and ideology.
- Hassan Khomeini is a 53-year-old grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, who is close to the reformist wing. He has charisma, recognition among the senior clergy and the support of some of the Revolutionary Guard, and could become a compromise figure for the new era.
“No one can predict whether a successor will be elected without upheaval. Iran after Khamenei will be a completely different kind of Iran,” says Iranian political scientist Hossein Rassam.
Khamenei’s political legacy under threat
Despite the fact that Khamenei has not publicly voiced any preferred candidate, sources claim that he has repeatedly opposed his son taking over, given the memory of the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979. According to the Iranian constitution, the position of the supreme leader must be filled by a decision of the Council of Experts.
However, in the context of the state of emergency and growing external pressure, constitutional mechanisms can be bypassed.
A new course or continued confrontation?
Recent events – Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the assassination of Revolutionary Guard commanders, and direct threats from Donald Trump (“We know where the ‘leader’ is hiding”) – raise the question of whether the new leader can choose the path of de-escalation.
While Mojtaba Khamenei embodies his father’s hard line, Hassan Khomeini may try to open Iran to dialogue, which, however, does not guarantee the survival of the regime in its current form.
Iran is facing a moment of truth. The choice of a successor can either be a continuation of the path of isolation and repression, or the first step towards gradual opening up. One thing is already clear: the figure of the supreme leader is no longer inviolable and unchangeable.
