Under a Trump-Vance administration, there is an extremely high likelihood that this continent will be left to face the Russian threat alone, writes The Telegraph.
If it wasn’t already clear, Donald Trump’s decision to choose Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate should set alarm bells ringing at maximum volume across Europe, warning about the future role of America in defending the continent, notes the British publication.
This is the clearest indication yet that Trump has adopted an “America First, Europe Last” agenda, which will have significant consequences for the war in Ukraine and Western security.
Trump’s New Running Mate
Trump’s new running mate is far from being a hawk. In February 2022, as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine, the unconventional senator stated: “I have to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” Since then, except for one occasion when he urged Ukraine to stop fighting and negotiate with Russia, Vance has consistently criticized Europe and NATO, which he believes feel entitled to rely on America’s defense.
Europe Risks Facing Russia Alone
In short, under a Trump-Vance administration, there is an extremely high likelihood that Europe will risk being left to face the Russian threat alone. If there ever was a time to panic, that time is now.
Eastern European countries, such as Poland and Estonia, have been warning about the prospect of a more direct war with Russia within two to three years, depending on the outcome in Ukraine.
Their argument, often ignored, is that Russia’s long-term goal is to erode and eventually destroy the idea that NATO’s Article 5 is “rock solid,” thus rendering the alliance strategically irrelevant. They also emphasize that once the war in Ukraine concludes, most likely with some form of negotiation rather than a clear Ukrainian victory, Russia’s already mobilized army could be redirected elsewhere.
Despite Russia’s military difficulties in Ukraine, the idea that Article 5 is a bluff has gained traction in Moscow. There are many ways Russia can test Article 5 without starting a full-scale conventional war.
Russia’s revanchist views on Baltic region borders could inspire maritime aggression; plausible deniability attacks, such as terrorism or cyber-attacks, are possible; limited military attacks on the Baltic states or Sweden’s Gotland island could also be considered. In this scenario, if the US or another country were to challenge the doctrine of Article 5, Russia would have the green light to continue testing the alliance until it destabilizes multiple countries fatally.
Europe’s Preparedness in Question
Unfortunately, some European capitals still deny Russia’s willingness to test Article 5, unable to perceive the nuances of testing the waters without diving in fully, relying instead on the relative stability of Trump’s first term.
Adding to Europe’s self-deception is the lack of consensus on acceptable “escalation risks” with Russia. This attitude does not demonstrate strength, and without US support, these differences will undoubtedly worsen, paralyzing Europe in the face of a challenge to Article 5 by Russia. The fundamental reality is that Europe is not yet psychologically prepared to fend for itself.
The state of military readiness is similarly bleak. Take Germany, for example. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz established a special €100 billion fund to buy modern weapons, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, Eva Högl, recently lamented that the Bundeswehr has “too little of everything.” Despite Högl’s desire to increase the German army from 181,000 to 203,000 soldiers, their number decreased by 1,537 in 2023.
Similar issues plague the British army. The House of Commons Defense Committee was warned in February that, given the shortage of personnel and weapons, the UK’s military capability would be exhausted after only two months of war. The arms manufacturer Northrop Grumman recently warned that the UK has a “very limited” air defense, almost negligible.
Europe’s military industry is not ready to help the continent stand on its own without America. Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for the Internal Market, announced last month that the EU would produce 1.7 million 155mm shells in 2024. However, industry insiders later warned that the EU’s actual production might only be a third of that figure. These estimates are likely accurate. The EU promised Ukraine 1 million shells by March 2024 but delivered only 30%. This trend is alarming, given that Russia produces 2.5-5 million shells annually and can import countless more from Belarus and North Korea.
Europe Must Rely More on Its Own Strength
Thus, we indeed face a bleak picture. It is time to inject a vital sense of urgency into European decision-making. The continent’s military spending is rising slowly. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in February that European allies could collectively spend €380 billion in 2024, a significant increase. Poland even plans to increase its military spending to 5% of GDP by 2025, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is considering a 3.5% target.
The EU’s Defense Industry Strategy helps governments take over civilian arms production in emergencies and has relaxed legislation on arms sales to third parties. Reforms in command structures, like Germany’s integration of domestic and foreign deployment units into a new central command, are encouraging, as was the appointment of the clear-headed hawk, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, as EU chief diplomat.
However, given the extent of military neglect since the Cold War, much remains to be done.If Trump provided lethal weapons to Ukraine and used the threat of NATO withdrawal to push European allies to increase their military budgets, his second term would likely be quite different. Vance firmly believes that America’s military resources should be redirected to the Indo-Pacific theater and considers an American presence in the Middle East more important than in Europe. While House Speaker Mike Johnson and many colleagues think otherwise, they are unlikely to torpedo a unified Trump-Vance position.
As Trump’s frontrunner status solidifies, Europe must increasingly rely on its own strength—not just for Ukraine, but for the entire continent.
