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North Korea, according to South Korean intelligence, has already sent thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its military operations in Ukraine, and thousands more are expected to arrive by the end of the year. This is confirmed by a new analysis by the National Intelligence Service (NIS), as reported by TimeUkraineIsrael, citing the Korea Herald.
Military costs and benefits
According to the latest NIS report, the costs associated with North Korea’s participation in the war are likely to outweigh the potential benefits. However, experts in Seoul believe that Pyongyang can rely on Moscow’s support in case of unforeseen circumstances on the Korean Peninsula.
A study by the NIS-affiliated Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) indicates that Pyongyang’s decision to send its troops to Russia could be a strategic move ahead of the US presidential election. It is predicted that Donald Trump’s victory could lead to a quick end to the war in Ukraine, potentially undermining the stability of the region.
Financial benefits for North Korea
Congressman Wee Sung-luck, former South Korean ambassador to Russia, believes that participation in the war could be a favourable deal for North Korea. In particular, each North Korean soldier fighting on the side of Russia will be paid about $2000 per month. As at least 10,000 soldiers are expected to arrive in Ukraine, this could result in an annual income of over $200 million for Pyongyang.
In addition to the military, there are currently about 4,000 North Korean workers in Russia, earning about $800 a month. According to the NIS, North Korea produces approximately 4 million tonnes of grain annually, but this is not enough to meet domestic demand. Russia, according to analysts, is ready to provide Pyongyang with 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes of rice, which could significantly ease the country’s food shortage.
Space technology and military cooperation
In addition to food, NIS reported that Russia could help North Korea with advanced space technology. This is due to Pyongyang’s intention to launch a new military satellite.
An equally important aspect of this agreement is the possibility of receiving Russian support in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. According to Wee, if there is ever a threat of war, North Korea can count on Moscow’s help.
Forecasts for the future
Expert Nam Sung-wook believes that military cooperation between North Korea and Russia will continue even after the conflict in Ukraine is over. They have signed a mutual defence agreement that provides for immediate military support in case of aggression.
It also underlines to us that North Korea will be an important asset for Russia in its negotiations with the future US administration. It is beneficial for Moscow to have close ties with Pyongyang in order to gain leverage over Washington.
Thus, the situation on the world stage remains tense, and new alliances and agreements between countries only complicate the geopolitical situation. North Korea seems to be betting on long-term benefits from cooperation with Russia, despite the risks and uncertainties.
