When Donald Trump takes office again in January 2025, he will face dangerous national security challenges, including the growing nuclear threat from countries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as internal US issues related to the renewal of its nuclear arsenal. Reuters looks at five major issues that could shape the new US nuclear policy.
1. 1.
Tensions between the US and Russia are at their highest level in 60 years. Russia is modernising its nuclear arsenal and refusing to negotiate a new treaty to replace New START, which expires in 2026. Donald Trump has advocated for an extension of the treaty to include China, but Beijing has rejected it. As the absence of a treaty creates risks, both sides are currently adhering to the New START terms.
2. China
China, traditionally less active in the nuclear sphere, is actively expanding its arsenal. In 2020, the United States estimated that Beijing had about 200 nuclear warheads, and by 2035 the number could reach 1,500 if development continues. Amid growing tensions over Taiwan, China has suspended arms control talks with the US. The new Trump administration will have to find ways to contain China while encouraging dialogue.
3. 3.
To maintain its strategic advantage over Russia and China, the US must modernise its nuclear triad – intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers and submarines. But this is expensive, with the project estimated at $1.5 trillion over the next 30 years. The high costs could affect other US military or social programmes, so Trump will face a dilemma of funding priorities.
4. 4.
Iran has moved closer to developing nuclear weapons due to failures in diplomatic negotiations, and this is a cause for concern. Tehran could return to developing a nuclear programme, especially if Israel continues to attack its facilities. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal collapsed after the US withdrew from it during Trump’s first term. The new administration is likely to have to decide whether to reimpose sanctions or seek new arrangements.
5. 5.
North Korea also poses a significant threat through its cooperation with Russia and numerous missile tests. Estimates suggest that Pyongyang could have up to 90 warheads, but lacks the materials to produce more. During Trump’s first term, negotiations with Kim Jong-un ended without results. In his new term, he will have to find a new approach to this crisis, possibly through diplomacy or sanctions.
These issues will be critical to determining the future role of the United States on the world stage, as well as to ensuring stability and security in the nuclear weapons sphere.
