Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
Poland is preparing for a hotly contested presidential election, and the first sociological data indicate that liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki have the best chance of making it to the second round, which is scheduled for 1 June. This was reported by Rzeczpospolita.
Trzaskowski, the candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European party, remains the frontrunner, but after a tense televised debate last Friday, his rating dropped 4.8% to 33.5%, according to the latest poll.
In contrast, Navrotsky, a candidate of the opposition Law and Justice party, added 5.4% to his total of 25.5%.
The third place goes to radical right-wing MP Slavomir Mencen (Confederation), whose support dropped to 13.4% after a number of scandalous statements, including a ban on abortion even in cases of rape.
In the second round, according to forecasts, Trzaskowski will win in any scenario:
- Against Navrotskyi: 55.7% to 38% (excluding undecided voters – 59.5% to 40.5%);
- Against Menzen: 56.5 per cent to 33.7 per cent (excluding undecideds – 62.5 per cent to 37.5 per cent).
Debates turned into a political show
The first televised debate, held in the town of Konske, revealed deep ideological differences, ranging from the threat of Russia to LGBT+ issues and the role of the US in European security. The debate got out of hand, with viewers booing the candidates and part of the debate taking place in the open air in a show-stopping format.
Nawrocki tried to play on conservative emotions by accusing Trzaskowski of over-supporting the LGBT+ community, symbolically placing a rainbow flag in front of him. In response, the mayor of Warsaw said: “You have some kind of obsession with homosexuals”.
Foreign policy background: Russia, the US and security fears
Candidates discussed growing fears of Russian aggression and the instability of US support. After the US announced the redeployment of some military personnel from a base near Rzeszow, Polish society became concerned about the possibility of a gradual withdrawal of US troops.
