Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: screenshot from the video
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be ready for talks, regardless of who wins the US election. This statement was made in Kyiv during his answers to journalists’ questions about the prospects for talks with Moscow. “It all depends on the US election,” Zelensky said. This was reported by CNN
If Kamala Harris remains in office and is likely to continue the Biden administration’s policy, Washington’s support for Ukraine will remain, although there may be some disagreements, for example, over the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory. On the other hand, Donald Trump, who is also a presidential candidate, has declared his readiness to end support for Kyiv and promised to “end the war in one day”. The peace plan proposed by his Vice President J.D. Vance echoes Putin’s demands.
US policy towards Ukraine is indeed at a crossroads, but experts say this will not necessarily facilitate peace talks. According to the experts, there are no signs that Russia is ready for talks, regardless of who is in the White House. “It’s unclear what Trump thinks he can do, what leverage he has, but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert and research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
A reduction in US military aid could have an impact on the course of the war, analysts suggest. Regardless of the president-elect, Putin will likely try to exploit “political divisions” in the United States, as well as “cracks in Western unity,” Graham told CNN.
Potential fissures could come in the form of reduced US aid or a lesser role in NATO under the Trump administration, as well as internal financial challenges for European allies and pro-Russian leadership in some NATO member states, such as Hungary and Slovakia. The absence of Western unity and a common vision with Ukraine only strengthens Putin’s position.
According to experts, the scale of this war is too large to achieve peace only through direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, as it is a conflict between Russia and the West as a whole. For Putin, “Ukraine is only a means, the ultimate goal is to limit the influence of the United States in the international arena,” said John Lowe, a Russia and Eurasia expert at the British think tank Chatham House.
Meanwhile, fighting continues on the frontline. Ukraine is currently facing a shortage of manpower, while Russia, according to NATO, has suffered more than 600,000 casualties, including killed and wounded. In some regions, particularly in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, Russian troops are carrying out massive offensives in an attempt to hold on to their positions, Ukrainian commanders say.
This week, the Ukrainian parliament extended martial law and general mobilisation for an additional 90 days, planning to recruit another 160,000 people. Ukrainian commanders tell CNN that the Russian army has a numerical advantage in equipment, drones and manpower.
“There are shells, but as the artillerymen say, there are never enough of them,” said Vitaliy Milovidov, a spokesman for the National Guard fighting in eastern Ukraine. According to him, if the US support decreases, Ukraine may be left severely underarmed on the battlefield. In response to this threat, European countries are trying to increase the production of ammunition.
However, even if the US continues its support, the West is not ready to provide Ukraine with the resources necessary to make decisive breakthroughs on the frontline. “It looks like the war will continue, perhaps less intensely, but for a long time,” suggests John Lowe of Chatham House.
Putin’s strategy is also aimed at demoralising Ukrainians. Russia regularly attacks civilian infrastructure, including the power grid, which exacerbates the hardships for the population ahead of the winter cold.
Against all odds, Ukrainians remain steadfast after the tragedies in Bucha and Mariupol, the massacres of civilians and the forced deportations of children. President Zelenskyy calls for support from both parties in the US and stresses that any peace through concessions will not bring a just solution to the conflict.
