Rafał Trzaskowski. Photo: Zbyszek Kaczmarek / Forum
Rafał Trzaskowski, the incumbent mayor of Warsaw and a representative of the liberal wing, has the highest chances of winning the first round of the Polish presidential election on 18 May. According to IBRIS data, he is gaining 31.5% of the vote, ahead of his main opponent, conservative Karol Nawrocki, who has 23.6%. This was reported by Politico.
It is expected that in the second round, on 1 June, Tshaskovsky will easily defeat both Navrotsky and the far-right candidate, Slawomir Mentzen.
This election could dramatically change the political balance in Poland: a victory for Trzaskowski would allow Donald Tusk’s government to implement reforms without the veto of the current president, Andrzej Duda, who supported PiS.
Apartment scandalundermines Navrotskyi’s position
Karol Nawrocki, supported by Law and Justice (PiS), is facing a serious reputational crisis. He is accused of dubiously purchasing an apartment – allegedly in exchange for caring for his elderly husband. Although Navrotskyi later donated the apartment to charity, the wave of criticism has not subsided. During the TV debates, he was harshly attacked by other candidates, and Tshaskovsky himself called his opponent’s statements “incredible lies”.
The choice that will determine the vector of Poland’s development
If elected president, Trzaskowski will support the Tusk government’s reforms, including women’s rights, judicial reform, and changes in migration policy. At the centre of his campaign is the desire to become president for all Poles, not just one political force.
Polish elections are taking place against a backdrop of growing disillusionment with both the ruling coalition and the opposition. Younger voters are increasingly looking for an alternative to the “eternal struggle” between the Civic Platform and PiS, calling it a “battle of the dinosaurs”.
