Russian soldiers at the frontline in Ukraine, Photo: Alexey Maishev / Sputnik
The Russian army will have to undergo reorganisation regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Analysts at the US-based RAND Corp. have outlined four possible scenarios for its transformation, among which the most likely is a return to the Soviet model of mass conscription.
According to Business Insider, the Russian military is faced with a choice: to try to restore the balance between firepower and technology, reform the army according to NATO’s model, or completely change military doctrine.
Four possible scenarios:
“The Shoigu Plan is to return the army to the state it was in before the full-scale invasion. In this case, Russia will try to combine the number of personnel with relatively modern weapons.
The Western model is the implementation of the 2008 reform, which provided for the transition to a professional army with high-quality training, the involvement of private military companies and a hybrid warfare strategy.
A complete break with Soviet traditions is the most unlikely scenario, which involves flexible management, transfer of command initiative to lower levels and implementation of modern military standards.
“Back to the USSR” is the most realistic option. Russia is returning to the model of a huge conscript army armed with Soviet weapons stockpiles. It was this model that was used during the war in Ukraine, and although it did not bring a quick victory, it allowed Russia to avoid total defeat.
RAND experts believe that due to resource constraints and strategic failures, Moscow is likely to rely again on numerical superiority rather than technology or the quality of military training.
