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Iran is undergoing a rapid change in the balance of power: a new generation of radical military officers is gradually replacing old commanders and clergy, turning the country into an even more militarised state, ready for conflict and internal repression. The Economist writes about this
On Monday evening, Tehran, ignoring US President Donald Trump’s warnings, launched missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. Missiles flew over the skyscrapers of Doha, and footage of the attacks flooded social media, causing alarm – albeit without significant consequences.
The attacks became the backdrop for an even more threatening process: the removal of the old guard from the political arena and the transfer of power to the hands of radicals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Military replaces clergy
According to the newspaper, in recent months, the military has gradually taken over real power in the country, which may indicate the regime’s evolution towards greater radicalisation amid a difficult war and external pressure.
The health of Iran’s 86-year-old leader Ali Khamenei is deteriorating, and, according to The Economist, in the first days of the war, he handed over key decisions to a new military council controlled by the IRGC. Some observers are already calling the situation in the country “de facto martial law”.
The old commanders, who for years had been following a strategy of “cautious waiting”, are giving way to new ones – impatient and dogmatic officers determined to “save national dignity”.
“The position of the radicals has only strengthened,” says a source from reformist circles. According to him, even before the war, part of Iran’s elite was seriously discussing the possibility of softening anti-Israeli rhetoric. Now, radicalisation has spread to the entire government apparatus.
A course for conflict – and the creation of nuclear weapons?
According to the newspaper, many Iranian officials, even former moderates, are now opposed to any negotiations with the United States. The memories of the fate of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, who caved in to the West, have only strengthened their radicalism.
The Economist notes that some of Iran’s leadership is already discussing the possibility of building or demonstrating nuclear weapons. Satellite imagery shows activity near the Fordow plant, which may be storing enriched uranium.
Some sources do not rule out even the scenario of using a nuclear device to demonstrate force.
Militarisation of the regime – repression inside the country
The change in the power structure has other implications: if the military dictatorship is finally established, the country will become even more rigid inside. The radical military has already pushed pragmatists out of state institutions.
Despite a certain “liberalisation” of external rituals – state television has shown footage of women without a strictly covered headscarf – Iran’s future is seen as authoritarian and militarised.
The Economist emphasises that despite calls by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or monarchist Reza Pahlavi for a popular uprising, society is instead consolidating around the government in a wave of nationalism.
“The regime is less and less willing to compromise – and more and more determined to conflict,” the British publication concludes.
