The possible re-election of Maia Sandu as president and the passage of the referendum on EU accession on 20 October 2024 will not be the final solution to Moldova’s European path. According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is actively trying to disrupt this process and will continue its attempts in the coming decades.
According to experts, Russia may resort to several strategies: political pressure on Moldova’s state institutions, the use of economic ties with Transnistria and Gagauzia, and manipulations at the international level to stop Moldova’s movement towards the European Union.
The threat of a Russian military invasion of Moldova is currently extremely low, but the situation could change if the conflict in Ukraine ends in Russia’s favour. Not only the security of Moldova, but also NATO’s eastern flank, including the defence of Romania, depends on Ukraine’s success at the front.
The Kremlin has already tried to influence Moldova’s internal politics by supporting pro-Russian forces and organising destabilisation operations. In the future, Russia is likely to continue these attempts by manipulating politicians and the population through Transnistria and Gagauzia.
ISW analysts compare the current situation in Moldova to Ukraine before 2014, when the Kremlin also used hybrid warfare methods to maintain its influence.
