The change in the Donald Trump administration’s diplomatic course towards Russia will have far-reaching consequences for global geopolitics, but it is unlikely to break the strong alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Analysts believe that Washington’s approach to the Kremlin will reduce Russia’s dependence on China, but the strategic interests of the two countries will remain common. This was reported by AFP.
The US president has demonstrated a willingness to reconsider three years of Western unity in confronting Russian aggression, which could lead to a revision of the terms of future negotiations on Ukraine. This will have a direct impact on China, which, although neutral in the war, has remained Moscow’s key economic and diplomatic partner since the imposition of sanctions.
According to experts, improved relations between the US and Russia will allow the Kremlin to regain the space for diplomatic manoeuvres that it has been deprived of because of the war in Ukraine. However, Russia’s dependence on China is unlikely to decrease significantly, as Beijing remains the Kremlin’s main economic donor, providing critical technologies and markets.
Analysts compare the situation to US President Richard Nixon’s historic “China breakthrough” in 1972, when Washington’s unexpected rapprochement with Beijing led to the isolation of the Soviet Union. However, the current geopolitical reality is very different. During the Cold War, China was a weakened state looking for allies against the USSR, while today Beijing is an economic giant with its own ambitions closely aligned with Moscow.
Russia may convince Trump that it is ready to distance itself from China, but in practice, Moscow is better off maintaining strong ties with Beijing. China’s economy remains critical to Russia’s stability, and the common desire to undermine US dominance in the world only strengthens cooperation between the two authoritarian regimes.
In the diplomatic confrontation between the West and Russia, Beijing has so far refrained from actively intervening, although it continues to develop military and economic ties with the Kremlin. The leaders of the two countries, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, hold regular talks, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has arrived in Beijing for consultations for the second time in three months.
For China, the best case scenario is for Russia to maintain its territorial gains in Ukraine and gradually return to the international community. Such a development could set a precedent for Beijing, which is closely monitoring the West’s reaction while planning its own actions in relation to Taiwan.
In this complex diplomatic game, Trump may try to reshape the world order, but it will be extremely difficult for him to completely break the Russian-Chinese alliance.
