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Turkey and its allies are increasing their military presence on the border with Syria, which, according to US officials, may indicate preparations for a large-scale invasion. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing statements by senior US officials.
Turkey’s force build-up
- Turkey’s military units, including special forces and militia fighters, are concentrated near the Kurdish-majority city of Kobani.
- A significant amount of artillery is also deployed on the border.
- The troop movements resemble preparations for the 2019 Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria.
Concerns of the Syrian Kurds
Ilham Ahmed, a representative of the Syrian Kurdish civil administration, called on US President-elect Donald Trump to press Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to prevent an invasion. In a letter to Trump, Ahmed warned:
- Turkey is seeking to establish control over the territories before Trump’s inauguration to force the US to engage with them as the new government.
- A possible invasion would lead to the displacement of more than 200,000 civilians, including Kurds and members of Christian communities.
US reaction and negotiations
- Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Turkey to discuss the future of Syria with Erdogan and to obtain assurances that active operations against Kurdish forces would cease.
- However, the US-mediated talks between the Syrian Kurds and Turkish-backed rebels in Kobane failed to reach an agreement.
The context of the conflict
- After the fall of Bashar al-Assad ‘s regime in early December, Turkey intensified operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara considers a continuation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an organisation recognised as a terrorist in Turkey.
- This puts the SDF in a vulnerable position, as it is these forces, together with US troops, that continue to fight against the Islamic State (IS) militants in northeastern Syria.
President Trump has previously stated that Turkey is pursuing an aggressive policy in the region, hinting at its influence on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. According to him, Turkey has “absorbed territories” without suffering major losses.
Possible consequences
A Turkish invasion could:
- Exacerbate the humanitarian crisis – hundreds of thousands of people could become refugees.
- Weaken the position of the SDF, which plays a key role in the fight against IS.
- Worsen relations between Turkey and the United States, as Washington supports Syrian democratic forces.
The situation on the Syrian-Turkish border remains tense, and the international community is closely monitoring Ankara’s actions.
