Russian President Vladimir Putin Photo: AP
European leaders are increasingly discussing possible scenarios of Putin’s Russia’s military aggression against Europe. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warns that Europe must be prepared for a potential war by 2029. This topic is becoming even more relevant against the backdrop of analyses by Western publications such as Newsweek, the Italian newspaper La Stampa and NATO defence strategies.
Possible fronts of aggression
The border with Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, is considered to be one of the most likely areas for a Russian military offensive. The country’s membership in the Alliance has become a powerful deterrent, but it has also increased strategic tensions. It is possible that Russia could use its large ethnic minority in the Baltic States as a pretext to destabilise the region.
The Baltic states are already actively preparing for a possible invasion. Estonia is planning to double the size of its army within ten years, while Lithuania is reinforcing its borders with anti-tank barriers known as “dragon’s teeth”. On the border between Lithuania and Poland, the Suwalki Corridor, a strategic land route that could become a key battleground, is attracting particular attention. Its defence is critical to maintaining the link between the Baltic states and Central Europe.
Kaliningrad and the Black Sea
Another point of tension is the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, located between Poland and Lithuania. Russian troops and weapons are already concentrated there, which poses the threat of a lightning offensive. In response, NATO is increasing its presence in the region, with the recent opening of a new naval headquarters in Rostock, Germany.
Russian ambitions are not limited to the Baltic region either. In April 2022, Russian commander Rustam Minnekayev announced Moscow’s intention to create a corridor through southern Ukraine to Transnistria. This confirms that the Kremlin’s expansionist goals extend to the Black Sea, including influence in the region of Abkhazia, which borders Turkey.
Is the West ready to restrain Putin?
Amid these challenges, NATO countries are stepping up their cooperation. In January 2024, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania signed an agreement on joint defence against the Russian and Belarusian threat. However, success in deterring Russia is only possible if all Allies are united.
Europe has a chance to avoid a large-scale conflict, but to do so, it needs to maintain cohesion, quickly adapt to new threats and continue to modernise its military forces.
