Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the short to medium term, as President Vladimir Putin fears it could destabilize his regime, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW analysts evaluated reports of a potential mobilization after Ukrainian forces entered Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024. Despite speculation that the Kremlin considered this as an opportunity to announce another wave of mobilization, Putin has so far refrained from taking such action.
According to the Russian opposition outlet Meduza, sources close to the government claimed that mobilization was under consideration immediately following the Kursk incursion. However, resistance from both the Russian government and Kremlin-linked business leaders prevented this idea from moving forward.
Throughout the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, Putin has consistently promoted the recruitment of volunteers, boasting of new recruits willing to fight in Ukraine. He also met personally with Russian volunteers, reinforcing his commitment to voluntary enlistment.
The ISW report emphasizes that Putin did not use the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region to prepare Russian society for mobilization. Instead, he has focused on forming new irregular units and expanding recruitment efforts for volunteer forces.
The shock of the partial mobilization announced in September 2022 remains fresh in the minds of both the Kremlin and Russian society. Given this, Putin appears determined to avoid a similar public backlash, seeking to maintain regime stability by steering clear of further mobilization waves.
